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GPS effect after the US employment data

United States – The surprisingly solid report on the evolution of employment in the United States, which aired yesterday, left investors “recalculating”, like a GPS when a driver changes or misses his route.

Is that the increase in 224,000 payrolls registered in the main world economy in June (the highest in 5 months) contrasted sharply with market forecasts (expected 160,000 new jobs), taking into account the slowdown in recent months, but moderated to the time it went up in salaries (it was 0.2%, at US $ 27.90 an hour).

The surprise was such that investors begin to reevaluate if the Federal Reserve (Fed, for its acronym in English) will decide or not to move towards an expansionary policy at its next meeting, something that had been discounted so far. The reaction showed that the strength of the data sowed doubts: although the belief persists that it will cut the rates by 25 points, it seemed to open a wait time to judge by the bearish bias with which closed the record week of S & P Wall Street.

The caution looks logical: next week four officials of the Fed will make public presentations and they will know the summary of their last meeting of the committee and the inflation figure. Why not unsaddle?

“In absolute terms, the American stocks are at maximum levels after having risen more than 20% in the first half of the year, however, in relative terms, the valuations are fair, but it will be very difficult for the market to repeat the performance of the first half of the year, because we believe that the global slowdown is not entirely discounted in the valuations of assets, “said Consultatio yesterday.

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